OpenAI Valuation Analysis - February 2026
Current Market Position
OpenAI remains the dominant player in the generative AI space, but competition has intensified significantly.
Revenue Breakdown (Estimated)
- ChatGPT Plus/Pro: ~$3.5B ARR (estimated 15M+ subscribers)
- API Revenue: ~$2B ARR (enterprise adoption accelerating)
- Enterprise Tier: ~$1.5B ARR
- Total Estimated ARR: ~$7B
Key Risks
- Margin Compression: Compute costs remain high despite optimization efforts
- Competition: Anthropic, Google, and open-source models closing the gap
- Regulatory Uncertainty: EU AI Act and potential US regulations
Comparable Analysis
| Company | Revenue Multiple | Notes | |---------|-----------------|-------| | Snowflake | 15x | Data infrastructure | | Palantir | 20x | AI/Data analytics | | OpenAI (at $157B) | 22x | Current valuation |
My Estimate: $140B
The current valuation assumes near-perfect execution. Given competitive pressures and margin challenges, I see the fair value closer to $140B (20x ARR), representing ~10% downside from recent funding rounds.
1 Reply
Your revenue breakdown looks solid but I think you're underestimating the enterprise opportunity. Microsoft's partnership means Azure customers get preferential access - that's a distribution channel worth billions. The real question is whether OpenAI can maintain technology leadership as Anthropic, Google, and Meta close the gap. Their moat is shrinking fast.